News/Updates

 

 

 

 

The New Hampshire and Maine Departments of Transportation are jointly studying the future of the Memorial (U.S. Route 1) Bridge and Sarah Long (U. S. Route 1 Bypass) Bridge across the Piscataqua River between the two states. One of the alternatives involves closing the Memorial Bridge to vehicular traffic. As such, the Study Team has been requested by MaineDOT and NHDOT to understand better the economic importance of the bridge to businesses in nearby zones in Portsmouth and Kittery.

 

 

This study tried to measure possible economic impact on businesses through a survey of more than 1,500 customers as they were exiting 15 selected retail and service businesses in Kittery and Portsmouth and a mail-out survey of 290 businesses of all kinds in the two communities, of which 96 returned completed surveys.

 

The surveys led to estimates of the percentage of customers that rely on the Memorial Bridge to reach different types of businesses either side of the bridge, the customers’ modes of travel, the likelihood that customers would find alternative routes to businesses if the Memorial Bridge were closed to vehicular traffic, and an estimate of impact on shares of sales.

 

Based on the surveys’ results, it is reasonable to estimate that sales would ultimately stabilize at 8% - 17% below a pre-bridge closing, depending on location, for businesses that rely on customer traffic. Individual businesses will be affected differently: businesses that are convenience-oriented, that rely primarily on pass-by traffic, and that are immediately en route to the bridge may be harder hit (more than 17% impact); businesses that are destination-oriented, that rely primarily on traffic coming to the business for a specific reason, and that draw from a trade area that is not as bridge-dependent may be hit less hard. But, overall, an 8% - 17% impact is a reasonable conclusion based on the available information.

 

 

Two independent surveys were conducted during March 2010: an exit survey of customers and a survey of business owners.

 

 

Seven of the businesses were located in Downtown Portsmouth (Zone 1 on the Map 1 at the end of this report). Eight of the businesses were located in Kittery in Zones 9, 10, and 11 on the attached map, including six centered on or near U.S. Route 1 in the pathway of Memorial Bridge and two located on the Route 1 Bypass in the pathway of Sarah Long Bridge.

 

Six percent of the interviews were conducted between 7 and 9 a.m. over the three days; 25% between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m.; 53% between 1 and 6 p.m.; and 6% between 6 and 8 p.m.

 

The survey intercepted and completed interviews with 1,505 customers. While these are statistically representative only of the businesses in which the interviews were conducted, the number and distribution of interviews yield results that provide good insight to trade areas and the use of Memorial Bridge by customers of businesses with walk-in traffic.

 

 

This survey sought information from the businesses about the places of origination of their customers, reliance of their customers on the three bridges between Kittery and Portsmouth, how a temporary closing of Memorial Bridge to vehicles in fall 2009 affected sales, share of customers who arrive at the business on foot or by bicycle, and their perceptions of the likelihood that customers would find alternative routes to their businesses if Memorial Bridge were closed to vehicles in the future.

 

Because returns from mail-out surveys are not random, the results are not susceptible to statistical tests of significance and cannot reliably be extrapolated to all businesses in the study area. However, they provide important impressions and, as long as appropriate caution is exercised, contribute to an understanding of likely impacts. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

·      By store location – 545 of the completed interviews, or 36%, were conducted in Downtown Portsmouth stores (Zone 1); 870, or 51%, were conducted in Kittery in the area centered on Route 1 near Memorial Bridge (Zones 9 and 11); and 190, or 13%, were conducted in Kittery in the area centered on Route 1 Bypass near Sarah Long Bridge (Zone 10). The number of interviews completed in Kittery was larger than in Portsmouth because of the large-volume nature of four of the businesses in Kittery (vs. one or two such businesses in Portsmouth downtown). See Table 1.

 

TABLE 1. Completed exit interviews by store location
	Total
N=	1505
Zone 1 Portsmouth	545 36%
Zone 9 Kittery	432 29%
Zone 10 Kittery	190 13%
Zone 11 Kittery	338 22%

 

·      By type of store – About a quarter (24%) of the completed exit interviews were conducted in “convenience” retail stores – i.e., stores that sell everyday items that are purchased in frequent intervals, such as grocery stores, drug stores, hardware stores, and gas stations. A little more than a third (35%) were conducted in “destination” retail stores – i.e., stores that sell specialty items that may be purchased in less frequent intervals than convenience merchandise or items for which customers may do comparison shopping, such as specialty food, furniture, toy, flower, and clothing, and similar stores. Nearly a third (31%) were conducted in restaurants, both sit-down and take-out. And 10% were conducted in personal service businesses. See Table 2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 2. Completed exit interviews by type of store
	Total
N=	1504
Convenience retail	367 24%
Destination retail	522 35%
Restaurant	469 31%
Personal Service	146 10%

 

·      By residence of customer – Similar shares of customers who were intercepted live in Portsmouth (23% of those interviewed) and Kittery (22%). Similar shares also live in other communities in New Hampshire (24%) and other communities in Maine (21%). About 11% live in places located outside of Maine and New Hampshire. See Table 3.

 

TABLE 3. Completed exit interviews by customers’ place of residence
	Total
N=	1488
Portsmouth	335 23%
Kittery	326 22%
Elsewhere in Maine	311 21%
Elsewhere in New Hampshire	351 24%
Elsewhere besides Maine or New Hampshire	165 11%

 

As would be expected, the distribution of customers by place of residence varied by location of the businesses. Of customers interviewed in Downtown Portsmouth, 37% live in Portsmouth and 31% live elsewhere in New Hampshire, largely from the Portsmouth and Rochester metro areas. About a fifth lives in Maine, including 10% in Kittery and 9% elsewhere in Maine.

 

Kittery businesses in the Route 1 corridor immediately across the Memorial Bridge are twice as dependent on Portsmouth and New Hampshire-based customers as vice versa. About 44% of customers exiting Zone 9 businesses, closest to the bridge, are from Kittery or elsewhere in Maine, but nearly as many (40%) are from Portsmouth or elsewhere in New Hampshire.   In Zone 11, the share of customers living in Portsmouth and elsewhere in New Hampshire is also fairly high at 33% versus 65% living in Maine. In Zone 10, which is more closely associated with the Sarah Long Bridge, the share of customers who live in New Hampshire drops to 20% versus 71% living in Maine. See Table 4.

 

TABLE 4. Residence of Customers by Location of Business
	Total	Location of business
		Zone 1 Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 10 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery
N=	1488	541	429	184	334
Portsmouth	335 23%	200 37%	72 17%	11 6%	52 16%
Kittery	326 22%	55 10%	87 20%	58 32%	126 38%
Elsewhere in Maine	311 21%	48 9%	102 24%	72 39%	89 27%
Elsewhere in New Hampshire	351 24%	169 31%	99 23%	25 14%	58 17%
Elsewhere besides Maine or NH	165 11%	69 13%	69 16%	18 10%	9 3%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

 

 

TABLE 5. Crossed MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business
	Total
N=	1504
Yes	449 30%
No	1055 70%

 

·      By Store Location – Customers visiting businesses located in Zones 9 and 11 in Kittery (in the pathway of Memorial Bridge) were much more likely to have crossed Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving at the businesses – 38% and 39%, respectively -- than customers visiting businesses in Downtown Portsmouth (Zone 1) or in Zone 10 in Kittery – 23% and 15%, respectively. See Table 6.

 

TABLE 6. Crossed MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business By Location of Business
	Total	Location of business
		Zone 1 Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 10 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery
N=	1504	545	431	190	338
Yes	449 30%	127 23%	162 38%	28 15%	132 39%
No	1055 70%	418 77%	269 62%	162 85%	206 61%

 

·      By Type of Store – Customers en route to convenience retail stores were only half as likely to have crossed the Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving compared with destination retail stores, restaurants, or personal service businesses (such as barber shops and dry cleaners). Seventeen percent said they did so, compared with between 32% and 40% for the other categories of businesses. See Table 7.

 

TABLE 7. Crossed MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business By Type of Business
	Total	Type of business
		Convenience retail	Destination retail	Restaurant	Personal Service
N=	1504	367	522	468	146
Yes	449 30%	63 17%	178 34%	149 32%	58 40%
No	1055 70%	304 83%	344 66%	319 68%	88 60%

 

 

TABLE 8. Planning to Cross MB Immediately After Leaving Business
	Total
N=	1504
Yes	557 37%
No	947 63%

 

·      By Store Location – As with crossing the Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving at the businesses, the likelihood of crossing the bridge immediately after leaving the businesses was much higher for customers of businesses in Zones 9 and 11 in Kittery than for customers of businesses in Zone 1 (Downtown Portsmouth) or Zone 10 in Kittery. However, in each zone, customers were somewhat more likely to plan to cross the bridge upon departure from the businesses than immediately before arriving at the businesses. This suggests some measure of linking of trips, such as stopping for breakfast before heading to work across the bridge, or stopping for an errand on the way home from work and then crossing the bridge. See Table 9.

 

TABLE 9. Planning to Cross MB Immediately After Leaving Business By Location of Business
	Total	Location of business
		Zone 1 Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 10 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery
Base	1504	545	432	189	338
Yes	557 37%	157 29%	210 49%	45 24%	145 43%
No	947 63%	388 71%	222 51%	144 76%	193 57%

 

·      By Type of Store – Customers of destination retail stores and restaurants were somewhat more likely to be planning to cross the Memorial Bridge immediately after leaving the businesses than were customers of convenience retail stores. Customers of personal service businesses (such as barber shops and dry cleaners) were the most likely to plan to cross the bridge upon departure of the businesses. See Table 10.

 

TABLE 10. Planning to Cross MB Immediately After Leaving Business By Type of Business
	Total	Type of business
		Convenience retail	Destination retail	Restaurant	Personal Service
N=	1504	366	522	469	146
Yes	557 37%	91 25%	198 38%	185 39%	83 57%
No	947 63%	275 75%	324 62%	284 61%	63 43%

 

TABLE 11. Crossing MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business By Planning to Cross MB Immedately After Leaving
Do you plan to cross the MB immediately upon leaving business?	Did you cross the MB immediately before coming to this business?
	Yes	No
N=	449	1054
Yes	326 73%	231 22%
No	123 27%	823 78%

 

 

TABLE 12. Mode of Travel
	Total
N=	1505
Drive	1352 90%
Walk	131 9%
Bike	22 1%

 

·      Mode of Travel Crossing Memorial Bridge Immediately Before Arriving at Business – Those who crossed Memorial Bridge immediately en route to a business were less likely to walk (6%) than those who did not cross the bridge (10%). See Table 13. Virtually all (88%) of those walking across the bridge en route to a business had walked to a business in Downtown Portsmouth (Zone 1) rather than in the opposite direction. This amounts to about 18% of all customers who had crossed Memorial Bridge en route to a Downtown Portsmouth business. For that matter, virtually all walkers were destined for a Downtown Portsmouth business, whether crossing the bridge or not; few customers reached the Kittery businesses by walking. Note that the bicycling numbers were overall very small; the numbers may well increase during warmer weather.

 

See Tables 13 and 14.

 

 

 

TABLE 13. Mode of Travel Crossing MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business
	Did you cross the MB immediately before coming to this business?
	Yes	No
N=	449	1055
Drive	415 92%	936 89%
Walk	26 6%	105 10%
Bike	8 2%	14 1%
Other	0 0%	0 0%

 

TABLE 14. Mode of Travel Crossing MB Immediately Before Arriving at Business by Location of Business
Location of business	Did you cross MB immediately before arriving at business?
	Yes                                                No
	Drive	Walk	Bike	Drive	Walk	Bike
N=	415	26	8	936	105	14
Zone 1 Portsmouth	101 24%	23 88%	3 38%	312 33%	95 90%	11 79%
Zone 9 Kittery	160 39%	0 0%	2 25%	263 28%	6 6%	0 0%
Zone 10 Kittery	26 6%	1 4%	1 13%	160 17%	1 1%	1 7%
Zone 11 Kittery	128 31%	2 8%	2 25%	201 21%	3 3%	2 14%

 

 

·      About a third of customers of businesses surveyed crossed the bridge either immediately en route to or immediately upon departure from the surveyed businesses.

 

·      This share increased to around 40% for businesses on the Kittery side of the Memorial Bridge (but is only half this number for businesses on the Kittery side of the Sarah Long Bridge). This is consistent with the origin of customers visiting businesses in Zones 9 and 11 in Kittery, including a third to 40% who live in Portsmouth or elsewhere in New Hampshire.

 

·      Downtown Portsmouth is less dependent on Memorial Bridge crossings, with about a quarter of customers interviewed in downtown businesses indicating they either had crossed the bridge immediately en route or planned to do so immediately upon leaving. And a notable share of these arrived by walking. By contrast, virtually all customers who crossed the Memorial Bridge en route to or leaving a business in Kittery did so by vehicle.

 

·      Comparing the percentage of customers who said they had crossed Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving at the business with the modestly higher percentage who said they planned to cross the bridge immediately after leaving the business suggests at least a moderate amount of trip linking.

 

 

A total of 96 businesses returned completed questionnaires. Key characteristics of these businesses include:

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 16. Locations of Business Respondents
	Total	Percent
N=	94
Zone 1 Portsmouth	55	59%
Zone 2 Portsmouth	2	2%
Zone 3 Portsmouth	0	0%
Zone 4 Portsmouth	3	3%
Elsewhere in Portsmouth	1	1%
Zone 9 Kittery	11	12%
Zone 10 Kittery	3	3%
Zone 11 Kittery	18	19%
Elsewhere in Kittery	1	1%

 

There was a fairly even split between retailers and service businesses in Downtown Portsmouth, plus several restaurants. Zones 9 and 11 in Kittery together also had a fairly good representation of retailers, service businesses and restaurants. Few businesses responded from the other zones. See Table 17.

 

TABLE 17. Location of Business By Type of Business
	Type of Business
	Retail	Services	Rest. & Lodging	Other
N=	38	39	9	8
Zone 1 Portsmouth	27 49%	21 38%	4 7%	3 5%
Zone 2 Portsmouth	0 0%	2 100%	0 0%	0 0%
Zone 3 Portsmouth	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
Zone 4 Portsmouth	1 33%	2 67%	0 0%	0 0%
Elsewhere in Portsmouth	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	1 100%
Zone 9 Kittery	1 9%	6 55%	3 27%	1 9%
Zone 10 Kittery	1 33%	1 33%	0 0%	1 33%
Zone 11 Kittery	7 39%	7 39%	2 11%	2 11%
Elsewhere in Kittery	1 100%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%

TABLE 18. Years in Business
	Total	Percent
N=	96
Less than 2 years	3 3%	3%
2 to less than 5 years	11 11%	11%
5 to less than 10 years	23 24%	24%
10 to less than 20 years	23 24%	24%
20 years or longer	36 38%	38%

 

 

TABLE 19. Average Number of Employees By Type of Business
	Total	Type of Business
		Retail	Services	Restaur. & Lodging	Other
N=	94	37	39	9	9
Employees	11	6	10	29	11

 

 

TABLE 20. Self-described as Pass-by v Destination Business
	Total
N=	94
Primarily pass-by business	32 34%
Primarily destination business	45 48%
Does not rely on walk-in customers	17 18%

 

Business respondents in Downtown Portsmouth were somewhat more likely than the sample as a whole to describe themselves as businesses that relied primarily on pass-by business, while businesses in Zone 9 in Kittery, immediately north of the Memorial Bridge, were more likely than the sample as a whole to describe themselves as destination businesses. See Table 21.

 

TABLE 21. Self-description as Pass-by v. Destination Business By Location of Business
	Business self-described as:
	Primarily pass-by business	Primarily destination business	Does not rely on walk-in customers
N=	32 34%	44 47%	17 18%
Zone 1 Portsmouth (Downtown)	25 45%	22 40%	8 15%
Other Portsmouth	1 17%	1 17%	4 67%
Zone 9 Kittery	1 9%	8 73%	2 18%
Zone 11 Kittery	5 29%	9 53%	3 17%
Other Kittery	0 0%	4 100%	0 0%

 

 

TABLE 22. Origination of Customers
	Total
N =	92
City of Portsmouth	25%
Elsewhere on the NH side of the Piscataqua River	21%
Town of Kittery	19%
Elsewhere on the Maine side of the Piscataqua River	19%
Elsewhere	16%

 

·      Origination of Customers by Location of Business: Consistent with findings from the exit survey of customers, Kittery businesses perceive themselves as being more dependent on customers from the New Hampshire side of the Piscataqua River than vice versa. While 50% - 55% of Kittery business’ customers come from Kittery or elsewhere on the Maine side of the river, about 40% come from the New Hampshire side. Similarly, about half of Portsmouth business’ customers come from Portsmouth or elsewhere in New Hampshire, but only about 30% come from Kittery or elsewhere on the Maine side of the river. About a fifth comes from outside of Maine or New Hampshire, mostly southern New England. See Table 23.

 

TABLE 23. Origination of Customers at Respondents’ Businesses By Location of Business
	Location of Business
	Zone 1 Portsmouth	Elsewhere Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery	Elsewhere Kittery
N =	52	6	11	18	4
City of Portsmouth	29%	25%	17%	20%	21%
Elsewhere on the NH side of the Piscataqua River	20%	28%	22%	21%	20%
Town of Kittery	12%	18%	33%	31%	20%
Elsewhere on the Maine side of the Piscataqua River	17%	13%	20%	23%	31%
Elsewhere	22%	17%	6%	7%	8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 24. Est. Shares Arriving by Foot or Bicycle
	Total	Percent
N =	91
Less than 5%	60	66%
5% to less than 10%	18	20%
10% to less than 20%	4	4%
20% to less than 30%	7	8%
30% to less than 50%	1	1%
50% to less than 75%	1	1%
75% or more	0	0%

 

Consistent with findings in the exit survey of customers, businesses in Downtown Portsmouth estimate that much higher shares arrive by foot or bicycle than do businesses elsewhere. Nearly half of Portsmouth downtown businesses estimate that 5% or more of their customers arrive by foot or bicycle, including more than a fifth that estimate that 10% or more of their customers do so. See Table 25.

 

 

TABLE 25. Est. Ped/Bike Shares By Location of Business
	Total	Location of Business
		Zone 1 Portsmouth	Elsewhere Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery	Elsewhere Kittery
N =	91	52	5	11	18	4
Less than 5%	60 66%	28 54%	5 100%	8 73%	15 83%	4 100%
5% to less than 10%	18 20%	13 25%	0 0%	2 18%	2 11%	0 0%
10% to less than 20%	4 4%	3 6%	0 0%	1 9%	0 0%	0 0%
20% to less than 30%	7 8%	6 12%	0 0%	0 0%	1 6%	0 0%
30% to less than 50%	1 1%	1 2%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
50% to less than 75%	1 1%	1 2%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
75% or more	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%

 

 

TABLE 26. Est. Av. Shares of All Customers Who Cross Specified Bridge Immediately Before Arriving at Business
	Total
N =	90
The Memorial (Route 1) Bridge	18%
The Sarah Long (Route 1A) Bridge	9%
The Piscataqua River (I-95) Bridge	13%

 

·      Reliance on Bridges by Location of Business – Businesses in Zones 9 and 11 in Kittery report being more reliant on the Memorial Bridge for customer traffic than do businesses elsewhere. They estimate that 21% - 25% of their customers use the bridge immediately before arriving at their businesses versus 17% who do so before arriving at Downtown Portsmouth businesses. Businesses in Zones 9 and 11 also rely more heavily on customers crossing the Sarah Long Bridge than businesses in Portsmouth.

 

Because sample sizes by location are small, these estimated percentages should be taken as indicators rather than as statistically reliable estimates. However, it is noteworthy that the estimated reliance on Memorial Bridge among Zone 9 and 11 businesses is much smaller than the percentages found in the earlier exit survey of customers. This is undoubtedly because those exit surveys were limited to businesses with significant walk-in customer traffic, whereas the business survey included other types of businesses as well – e.g., professional services where most business is transacted in other ways, contractor businesses where employees go to customers, etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 27. Est. Av. Shares of All Customers Who Cross Specified Bridge Immediately Before Arriving at Business by Location of Business
	Location of Business
	Zone 1 Portsmouth	Elsewhere Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery	Elsewhere Kittery
Base	51	5	11	18	4
The Memorial (Route 1) Bridge	17%	1%	25%	21%	19%
The Sarah Long (Route 1A) Bridge	6%	1%	10%	16%	27%
The Piscataqua River (I-95) Bridge	12%	33%	9%	12%	14%

 

·      Reliance on Bridges by Type of Business – There is not much difference among retail, service, and restaurant/lodging respondents in terms of their reliance on customers crossing Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving at their businesses. Each is in the range of 17% - 24%. Restaurants reported being somewhat more reliant than others on Sarah Long Bridge. See Table 28.

 

Businesses do not appear to differ significantly in their reliance on bridge crossings based on whether they describe themselves as primarily dependent on pass-by traffic or primarily dependent on destination traffic. In both cases, respondents estimate that 19% - 23% of their customers use the Memorial Bridge immediately before arriving at their businesses. As expected, businesses that do not rely primarily on walk-in traffic do not depend much on bridge crossings (some of these respondents referred to employee rather than customer use of the bridges). See Table 29.

 

TABLE 28. Est. Av. Share of All Customers Who Use Bridges Immediately Before Arriving By Type of Business
	Type of Business
	Retail	Services	Restaur & Lodging	Other
N =	35	38	9	8
The Memorial (Route 1) Bridge	21%	17%	24%	7%
The Sarah Long (Route 1A) Bridge	9%	7%	19%	7%
The Piscataqua River (I-95) Bridge	14%	12%	8%	11%

 

 

TABLE 29. Est. Av. Share of All Customers Who Use Bridges Immediately Before Arriving By Pass-by v Destination
	Business in primarily:
	Relies on pass-by traffic	Relies on destination traffic	Does not rely on walk-in customers
N =	30	43	16
The Memorial (Route 1) Bridge	23%	19%	7%
The Sarah Long (Route 1A) Bridge	8%	12%	3%
The Piscataqua River (I-95) Bridge	13%	12%	13%

 

 

·      Likelihood that Customers Found Another Route – About 65% of respondents said it was somewhat likely (21%) or very likely (44%) that their customers found another route to their businesses. A quarter said it was somewhat unlikely (14%) or very unlikely (11%) that customers found another route, and 9% said they could not say. See Table 30.

 

TABLE 30. Likelihood that Customers Found Another Route During Fall 2009 Closure of Memorial Bridge
	Total	Percent
N =	90
Very likely	40	44%
Somewhat likely	19	21%
Somewhat unlikely	13	14%
Very unlikely	10	11%
Cannot estimate	8	9%

 

A higher percentage of respondents from Kittery than from Portsmouth consider it unlikely that customers found an alternative route to their businesses. Combining respondents from Zones 9 and 11, 10 of the 27 businesses responding, or 38%, said it was somewhat or very unlikely. (Zone 9 businesses were more optimistic than Zone 11 businesses, but the sample size in each zone is very small.) Eleven of the 53 respondents from Downtown Portsmouth, or 21%, thought it was unlikely that customers found an alternative route. See Table 31.

 

TABLE 31. Likelihood that Customers Found Another Route During Fall 2009 Closure of Memorial Bridge By Location of Business
	Location of Business
	Zone 1 Portsmouth	Elsewhere Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery	Elsewhere in Kittery
N =	53	5	11	16	4
Very likely	22 42%	4 80%	6 55%	6 38%	2 50%
Somewhat likely	14 26%	0 0%	2 18%	2 13%	0 0%
Somewhat unlikely	8 15%	0 0%	2 18%	3 19%	0 0%
Very unlikely	3 6%	0 0%	1 9%	4 25%	2 50%
Cannot estimate	6 11%	1 20%	0 0%	1 6%	0 0%

·      October-November 2009 Sales Experience – Nearly two-thirds of respondents (65%) reported that their October-November 2009 sales were lower than the average for this period over the previous three years. These include a quarter (26%) who said their sales were 20% lower or more. Only 5% said sales were higher. The median response is 10% to 14% lower. See Table 32.

TABLE 32. Oct-Nov 2009 Sales vs Average for Same Period from 2006-2008
	Total	Percent
N =	86
10% or higher	4	5%
1%-9% higher	0	0%
About the same	26	30%
1%-9% lower	10	12%
10%-14% lower	16	19%
15%-19% lower	8	9%
20%-24% lower	12	14%
25+% lower	10	12%

 

A higher percentage of respondents from Zones 9 and 11 reported high levels of decline than from Downtown Portsmouth. Of 26 respondents in Zones 9 and 11, ten or 38% said their sales dropped by 20% or more in October-November 2009 compared with the average for the same period during the previous three years. The median response was 15% - 19% lower. Of 49 respondents in Downtown Portsmouth, the share citing 20+% decline was 16%. The median response was 10% - 14% lower. See Table 33.

 

Respondents that described themselves as primarily depending on pass-by traffic were more likely to report greater declines in sales than those that described themselves as primarily destination businesses, while businesses that said they do not depend on walk-in customers reported the mildest declines. However, the median response among each of these groups of businesses was 10% - 14% lower. 

 

See Tables 33 and 34. We caution that as we break down a modest sample of respondents into smaller groups, and that because the sample was self-selected (by the decision to return or not return a completed questionnaire), the data should be considered as indicators rather than as statistically significant.

 

 

 

 

TABLE 33. Oct-Nov 2009 Sales vs Average for Same Period from 2006-2008 by Location of Business
	Location of Business
	Zone 1 Portsmouth	Elsewhere Portsmouth	Zone 9 Kittery	Zone 11 Kittery	Elsewhere in Kittery
N =	49	6	10	16	4
10% or higher	3 6%	1 17%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
1%-9% higher	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
About the same	13 27%	3 50%	3 30%	5 31%	2 50%
1%-9% lower	9 18%	0 0%	0 0%	1 6%	0 0%
10%-14% lower	12 24%	0 0%	2 20%	2 13%	0 0%
15%-19% lower	4 8%	0 0%	1 10%	2 13%	0 0%
20%-24% lower	6 12%	1 17%	4 40%	1 6%	0 0%
25+% lower	2 4%	1 17%	0 0%	5 31%	2 50%

 

TABLE 34. Oct-Nov 2009 Sales vs Average for Same Period from 2006-2008 by Pass-by v Destination
	Business self-described as:
	Primarily pass-by business	Primarily destination business	Does not rely on walk-in customers
Base	32	38	15
10% or higher	1 3%	1 3%	2 13%
1%-9% higher	0 0%	0 0%	0 0%
About the same	4 13%	15 39%	7 47%
1%-9% lower	6 19%	3 8%	1 7%
10%-14% lower	8 25%	6 16%	1 7%
15%-19% lower	3 9%	4 11%	1 7%
20%-24% lower	5 16%	4 11%	3 20%
25+% lower	5 16%	5 13%	0 0%